Liv-ex Fine Wine Market Blog

We have a winner...

Following the release of Ausone this morning -  €960 per bottle ex-negociant, up 60% on 2005 (€600 p/b) - the long 2009 campaign is now almost over (the only major names yet to release are Petrus, Lafleur and Le Pin). 

As such, we can now name the winner of our annual Liv-ex En Primeur Survey release price prediction competition. 

The actual release prices (first tranche) for the ten wines in our basket totaled €3,276 ex-Bordeaux, some €1,061 more than our survey predicted. Overall, the wines were released 57% up on 2005 and 226% more than 2008, significantly higher than our survey's average prediction of 6% and 120%.

Every single respondent undershot the total, the majority by more than €1,000. The closest, who works in sales at a major UK wine merchant, was €436 away, with a predicted basket price of €2,840. He wins a double magnum of Figeac 2005 for his efforts.

A table summarising the results is below.

 

All prices in €/b. The "Predicted 09" column shows the average price given in our pre-campaign survey. The change columns compare the actual release price of the 2009s in €/b with the 2008 and 2005 release prices.

Nearing the end

After two weeks of fervent activity, the campaign is slowly winding down. Bar Ausone, all of the biggest names have now emerged – albeit in small quantities – and many 2009s are now seeing strong trade on the secondary market. Below is a roundup of this week’s EP releases.

 
  
The most expensive releases of the campaign emerged this week, with chateaux rising an average of 57% on 2005, compared with 29% the previous week. Mission Haut Brion bore one of the heftiest price tags at €540 p/b ex-negociant – up 390% on 2008 and 272% on 2005. Cos d’Estournel also turned heads, surfacing at €210 – a 75% increase on 2005. Nonetheless, the second growth has seen good levels of trade so far at around £2,300 per case.

 
  
Most notably perhaps, this week saw all five Firsts come to market. Lafite, Margaux and Mouton were released at €550 p/b ex-negociant (allocations were extremely difficult to come by) whilst Latour and Haut Brion were slightly more expensive at €600 p/b (the size of the Haut Brion tranche was relatively large).

As you can see from the chart below, many of the Firsts are trading above the current market price of their respective 2005s, with some even rising above the 2000s. Interestingly, only one week after the release of Lafite (the first of the Premier Cru to emerge this year), a market hierarchy has already emerged. Despite releasing at similar prices, Lafite and Latour have seen much greater price movement over the last few days. Lafite in particular is now trading at around €1,286 per bottle – almost double the price of Haut Brion.

Compared with 2009 prices, some First Growth back vintages now appear relatively cheap. Haut Brion 2000 (RP 98) is trading at €545 p/b (£5,400 per case) – 20% cheaper than 2009, whilst Mouton 2005 (RP 96) looks appealing at €509 p/b (£5,050 per case).

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The latest from Bordeaux...

This morning saw another rush of new releases, including Pichon Lalande (€126 p/b ex-negociant) Pavie (€196 p/b ex-negociant) and the the last remaining Premier Cru, Haut Brion (€600 p/b ex-negociant). The final First emerged 150% up on 2005, a touch above Margaux, Mouton and Lafite (all of which were released at €550 p/b ex-negociant), although the size of the tranche was significantly larger.

But where Haut Brion was up, Pavie 2009 was down, coming out just below its 2005 equivalent, which is currently trading at £2,218 per case (up 23% since release). Pavie Decesse (€118 p/b ex-negociant) also surprised, emerging 12% beneath 2005, despite a similar Parker score. The other releases, however, saw steep increases, rising between 29% and 150% on 2005.

Here’s a summary of the day’s releases so far:

Haut Brion €600 p/b ex-negociant: +300% on 2008 (€150) +150% on 2005 (€240)
Pichon Lalande €126 p/b ex-negociant: +223% on 2008 (€39) +52% on 2005 (€83)
Figeac €160 p/b ex-negociant: +290% on 2008 (€41) +127% on 2005 (€70.5)
Bellevue Mondotte €216 p/b ex-negociant: +64% on 2008 (€132) +29% on 2005 (€168)
Pavie Decesse €118 p/b ex-negociant: +51% on 2008 (€78) -12% on 2005 (€134)
Pavie €196 p/b ex-negociant: +100% on 2008 (€98) -1% on 2005 (€198)

Whilst the First Growths are all up considerably on previous years, only Latour and, of course, Lafite have seen relatively high volumes of trade on the exchange. Latour rose from £10,200 yesterday to just under £12,000. Still, Lafite continues to enjoy the lion’s share of demand, with trades fluctuating between £13,000 and £13,200.

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Only one remains

It seems we are fast approaching the zenith of this year’s campaign, with all but a smattering of left banks and the biggest right banks yet to emerge. Today saw the release of the first tranches of Chateaux Margaux (€550 per bottle ex-negociant) and Latour (€600 p/b ex-negociant), both of which are, predictably, up significantly on 2005 (+34% and +46% respectively). Other notable releases included:

Palmer €215 p/b ex-negociant: +152.9% on 2008 (€85) and +43.3% on 2005 (€150)  
Pichon Baron €90 p/b ex-negociant: +109.3% on 2008 (€43) and +15.4% on 2005 (€78) 
Conseillante €138 p/b ex-negociant: +232.5% on 2008 (€41.5) and +76.9% on 2005 (€78) 
Canon €90 p/b ex-negociant: +150% on 2008 (€36) and +66.7% on 2005 (€54)  
Ducru Beaucaillou 180 p/b ex-negociant: +188% on 2008 (€62.5) and +66.7% on 2005 (€108) 
Clarence Haut Brion 90 p/b ex-negociant: +150% on 2008 (€36) and +164.7% on 2005 (€34)  
Pape Clement €92.4 p/b ex-negociant: +42.4% on 2008 (€64.9) and +2.7% on 2005 (€90) 

In all, the day's releases rose an average of 44% on 2005.

The First Growths attracted relatively strong demand on the exchange, despite the small quantities initially allocated. Latour 2009 traded at over £10,200 per case this afternoon – above the current trading price of the 2000 and 2005 vintages.  The release also aided back vintage trade somewhat, boosting Latour 2000 to an all-time high of £9,105.

Unsurprisingly, Lafite 2009 prices continue to push upwards, with the latest vintage touching £13,000 this afternoon. The 2000 also benefited from the swell in prices, hitting £18,000.

Away from the Firsts, Carruades de Lafite has seen extremely high volumes of trade and a significant rise in prices since its release (climbing to £2,520 from £1,838 yesterday). Mission Haut Brion prices, however, are on the downward slope, dropping from £6,100 to £5,500.

Will the final First emerge tomorrow?

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Mouton and Mission on Monday

The week is off to a steady start with the release of Mouton Rothschild and Mission Haut Brion. 

Here’s a quick rundown of today’s en primeur action:

Mouton Rothschild €550 p/b ex-negociant: +358% on 2008 (€120), +53% on 2005 (€360)
Mission Haut Brion €540 p/b ex-negociant: +391% on 2008 (€110), +272% on 2005 (€145)
Leoville Poyferre €72 p/b ex-negociant: +172% on 2008 (€26.5), +50% on 2005 (€48) 
Gaffeliere €52 p/b ex-negociant: +86% on 2008 (€29)
Lascombes €60 p/b ex-negociant: +100% on 2008 (€30), +33% on 2005 (€45)
Montrose €108 p/b ex-negociant: +157% on 2008 (€42) and +64% on 2005 (€66)

Every release we saw today was up by at least 33% on 2005, making it the most expensive day of the campaign on a relative basis.  Mission was released at above the current prices of the excellent 2005 and the 100-point 2000. Nevertheless, we saw strong secondary market trade at £6,100 per 12x75cl case. Unsurprisingly the back vintages also received a boost with the 2005 (£4,800) and 2000(£5,450) seeing good demand.

Today also saw the first sustained trading in Lafite Rothschild, which hit a high of £12,750 this afternoon (up from £11,000). Demand for Carruades was also strong, hitting £1,950.

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Liv-ex membership hits 300

Last week Liv-ex reached another milestone, signing up our 300th fine wine trading member - up from 263 members at the start of the year. Since the exchange’s launch in 1999, the Liv-ex global network has expanded rapidly to include major wine merchants and traders in 26 countries across Europe, Asia, North America and Australasia. Combined they account for about 80% of global turnover in fine wine. Liv-ex would like to thank all of its members and subscribers for their continued support.

FT Wine Investment supplement

The Financial Times published its annual "Buying & Investing in Wine" supplement on Saturday, featuring some interesting reading for collectors and traders alike. As usual, the aticles are available on the FT website, with links below.

Notes of recovery, hints of bubble

My tops for value (up to €50): The difference between fine drinking and price

An app before dinner

eProvenance: Some like it hot but most like it at the right temperature...

Auctions: China uncorks the market

Foiling the fraudsters: Containing subtle hints of berry, oak, and scandal

En primeur: Prices may rise as more money chases a better product

Languedoc: Hope lies in hills for region on the up

Online trading: Beginning to spread its wings

South Africa: Escape to the Cape for a touch of the old world

Chateau Lafite: Demand from China fuels spectacular performance

DIY wineries: Corking good way to enter the business and roll out a barrel

Watch out for the scams

Bordeaux 2009: out they come...

After months of waiting, this week saw the 2009 En Primeur campaign finally catch fire. Thursday was undoubtedly the most pivotal day of the campaign so far (not to mention the busiest EP day anyone can remember), with many of Bordeaux’s biggest names releasing just minutes apart. It culminated in the release of the first tranche of Lafite Rothschild at €550 p/b ex-negociant, although the volume was tiny (at half the level of last year's first tranche).

 

As you can see in the chart above (comparing Lafite's first tranche release prices since the 2000 vintage), the current release represents a significant uplift. Conversely, when you compare this against the current prices for the majority of strong vintages (all of which trade at over €1,000 per bottle), it looks remarkably cheap. With a further (more expensive) tranche expected soon, merchants will undoubtedly wait for more volume before deciding on their eventual offer price. The same can be said for Carruades de Lafite (€68 p/b ex-negociant, up 89% on 2005) and Forts de Latour (€89 p/b, up 85% on 2005).  

Today the market appeared to be nursing a hangover after yesterday's excesses, although we still saw a few big names emerge.  Leoville Barton at €62,50 p/b ex-negociant (up 26% on 2005) was probably the pick (see below for a full list of the week's releases).

If we look at the campaign so far, 2009 prices for the top 60 wines released are up, on average, 71% on 2008 and 23% on 2005. This is only half of the story, however. Wines released prior to this week were up 13% on 2005, whereas those released from Monday onwards saw a 29% increase. Despite the market grumbles, it clearly paid to wait. The most successful release of the week was Pontet Canet, which, despite a record release price, saw its value soar on the secondary market.

Please see below for a full update of this week's releases. When the London releases become clearer, we will run a full analysis comparing the 2009s with the current market prices of the 2000s and 2005s. Please check back next week.

 

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The floodgates open...

Today has seen a flood of new releases (and it’s not even lunch yet), including perennial favourite Lynch Bages and the second wines of Latour and Mouton. London releases are so far unconfirmed, but check tomorrow’s blog for a full analysis of this week’s action.

Beychevelle €44 p/b ex-negociant: +105% on 2008 (€21,50) +54% on 2005 (€28,50)
Lynch Bages €72 p/b ex-negociant: +125% on 2008 (€32) +45% on 2005 (€49.5)
Canon La Gaffeliere €59 p/b ex-negociant: +85% on 2008 (€31.9)
Petit Mouton €60 p/b ex-negociant: +56% on 2008 (€38.4) +33% on 2005 (€45)
Clinet €70 p/b ex-negociant: +112% on 2008 (€33) +17% on 2005 (€60)
Troplong Mondot €90 p/b ex-negociant: +136% on 2008 (€38) no change on 2005 (€90)
D'Issan €39.6 p/b ex-negociant: +83% on 2008 (€21.6) +26% on 2005 (€31.5)
Forts de Latour €89 p/b ex-negociant: +93% on 2008 (€46) +85% on 2005 (€48)
Branaire Ducru €43.2 p/b ex-negociant: +92% on 2008 (€22.5) +24% on 2005 (€34.8)

4PM UPDATE -  and the releases have continued to flow:

Kirwan €34.5 p/b ex-negociant: +60% on 2008 (€21.5) +15% on 2005 (€30
Clos Fourtet €60 p/b ex-negociant: +33% on 2005 (€45)
Le Gay €72 p/b ex-negociant: +33% on 2008 (€54) +9% on 2005 (€66)
Croix de Beaucaillou €25.8 p/b ex-negociant: +59% on 2008 (€16.2) +43% on 2005 (€18)
Climens €72 p/b ex-negociant: +23% on 2008 (€58.5) no change on 2005 (€72)
Beausejour Becot €43.2 p/b ex-negociant: -4% on 2005 (€45)

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2009 starts to flow

The quickening pace of the campaign continues as Talbot (€36 p/b), Lagune (€32 p/b), Evangile (€180 p/b) Nenin (€38.4 p/b), Clos du Marquis (€33.6 p/b), Rauzan Segla (€60 p/b),  Marojallia (€46.8 p/b) and Lagrange St Julien (€37.2 p/b) join this week’s list of 09 releases.

Most of today’s big names have emerged well above their respective 2005 release prices, with Evangile (RP 97-100) causing a stir at triple the price of its 2008 release (ex-negociant), and double the price of the 2005. The latest vintage is now the most expensive Evangile of the decade (having been released in London at £2,100). Nevertheless, it appears to have sold through well.

A second tranche of Pontet Canet was also released this morning at €85 p/b (up from €72 yesterday). Unsurprisingly, demand is still very strong and prices are fast approaching £1,070 per case.  

 

All prices are in GBP and are for 12x75cl cases stored in bond.

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