Saturday 15th September marked the four-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In line with other indices, the Liv-ex 100 inevitably suffered from the aftershock, and fell by 3.7% in September 2008, before falling a further 12% in October (the largest monthly movement in its history). The instant fall-out from the crash was felt by all but Gold, which dropped below its pre-Lehman level just once in October 2008, and has far outperformed all other asset classes since.
Having struggled to recover their original level (and stay above it), the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 are now respectively 9.6% and 1.3% up on four years ago. The FTSE 100 finally met the path of the falling Liv-ex 100 in July 2010, and is only marginally keeping its head above its pre-Lehman level.
Meanwhile, the Liv-ex 100 and Shanghai Composite have near-mirrored each other’s paths since summer 2010, when Asian demand for Lafite and the other First Growths saw the wine indices shoot skywards. Indeed it is only over the last couple of months that their fortunes have diverged. The Shangahi Composite sunk 2.4 percentage points between July and August to land at 14% below its level from four years ago, while the Liv-ex 100 made a small step up. Only time will tell as to whether this marks a more permanent divide between the paths of wine and Chinese equities. Currently, the Liv-ex 100 is 2.4% below its level from before the Lehman crash.