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12 March 2014



With #BDX13 pricing at hand, this post resurfaced. Good charts. Keeping in mind you are analyzing 5 wine brands, here is another interpretation of the data:

1. Regarding "time in bottle adding nothing to a wine's value", and your point on supply depletion, It would be interesting to look at sales volume at these price levels relative to production quantities. Is there a reliable way to assess this? Apparently we are a long way from depletion status. That said, if you showed the chart of 1994-2009 vintage release prices compared to value in 2011 and 2014, would we not see the price appreciation of which you speak from that baseline for the older vintages, or is your data showing a complete price retreat?

2. RE: "...Newer vintages have been hardest hit by the market's downturn..." that's one way to say it. Why might that be? Another way to say it is, "perhaps newer vintages were priced incorrectly based on an optimistic read of the market". And that, in turn, might simply have been a false interpretation, or a bit of projected hope, in the sustaining nature of the expanding Asian luxury market's appetite and purchase behavior for wine vs the rest of the traditional first growth markets around the world.

Regardless, the factor that seems relevant here is that many believe the latest vintages were too dearly priced from the get-go (2009-2012, although many might say 2005-2012, ex08). As Chateaux leverage the latest "vintage of the century" to establish a new pricing plateau, then price subsequent "off" vintages higher than back vintages, in an attempt to secure for themselves, upfront, the gains that these wines have been historically capable of producing, it puts a lid on the entire proposition.

Something that can't go on forever, won't.


Thank you for the analysis.
What do you think might trigger the rebound?

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