Ten years on: Sauternes 2007

Over the past few weeks, Liv-ex has examined the price variations – the highest and lowest Market Prices against the current and release prices – of Bordeaux wines from the 2007 vintage. The chart below displays the same data for the highly rated 2007 wines of the Sauternes 50 sub-index of the Bordeaux 500.

In contrast to the other sub-indices of the Bordeaux 500, all five of the wines in the Sauternes 50 index have dropped in value since En Primeur.

Yquem 2007 has fallen the most and is now available for £2,100, a 46.2% decrease on its release price of £3,900. The equally scored Climens 2007 (NM 98) sees the second largest variation in price. At peak, its Market Price was 37.1% above release. Since then, it has nearly halved to £650.

Suduiraut is now trading at £319, 23.1% below release.

Despite modest rises after En Primeur, Rieussec and Coutet have fallen over 23% and are now available at £295 and £225 respectively.

Sauternes07

Previous analysis on 2007 – ten years on:


 

Ten years on: Second Wines 2007

Second wines

Last week Liv-ex analysed the price variations – the highest and lowest Market Prices against the current and release prices – of the Bordeaux First Growths from the 2007 vintage. The chart above displays the same data for the wines from the Second Wines 50 sub-index of the Bordeaux 500.

All five of the First Growths’ second wines have made staggering gains since En Primeur. Like its first wine, Carruades Lafite 2007 has risen the most – 283.3% since release – and sees the largest variation in price. At peak in August 2011, its Market Price was more than six times higher than its release of £600.

Similarly, like its first wine, Clarence Haut Brion 2007 has gained the least since release, but is still up by 113.8%. The 2007 was the first vintage from the estate to be named Clarence, rather than Bahans Haut Brion.

Petit Mouton and Pavillon Rouge are both around 10% off their peak and command Market Prices of £1,646 and £1,350 per 12×75 respectively.

Second_wines_2007


Liv-ex 1000 continues to climb

Liv-ex 1000

The Liv-ex 1000 Index – the broadest measure of the fine wine market – closed January 2017 at another all-time high of 301.24. This is an increase of 0.5% on December’s close of 299.80. The index has now reached record highs for six consecutive months and is up 21.5% year-on-year.

Sub-indices

Among the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, the Burgundy 150 (+25.4%) and the Champagne 50 (+22.2%) have increased the most over one year. The Italy 100 (+2.8%) made the strongest gains this month as buyers broadened their focus.

However, in January the Bordeaux Legends 50 (-0.9%) recorded small declines on the previous month.

monthly close


Liv-ex 100 gains 1.25% in January

five years

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index closed January at 301.88, up 1.25% on the previous month. The index has now risen for an unprecedented fourteen consecutive months and is up 25.3% year-on-year. It is now at its highest point since October 2011, when it closed at 308.03.

The biggest movers last month came from a number of regions. The top two were Guigal, Cote Rotie 2012 (average price, production combined of the La Las) and 100-point (WA) Smith Haut Lafitte 2009. They increased by 11.0% and 7.3% respectively. Guigal, Landonne 2012 was upgraded to 100-points at the end of December 2016 by Wine Advocate.

Pavie 2009 (WA 100) also gained 5.4%. Earlier in the month it traded at an all-time high of £3,100 per 12×75.

Overall, momentum increased in January: the index rose 1.25%, compared to just 0.4% in December. However, not all wines moved in a positive direction: Leoville Las Cases 2009 (WA 98+) and Haut Bailly 2009 (WA 100) pulled back slightly after making significant gains in previous months.

Movers


Fine wine merchants underestimate price rises in 2016

Fouryearview

Every January in the Liv-ex members’ survey, we ask fine wine merchants to estimate the closing level of the Liv-ex 100 index that year. For the first time since 2013, when we first asked for predictions, the index has performed better than Liv-ex members expected. It gained 24.8% to close on 297.33; on average, merchants predicted a rise of just 5.4%.

This year, almost all merchants underestimated the gains made by the index: 98.9% thought it would perform worse than it did. The lowest guess was for a closing level of 215; the highest estimation was 300 – just 2.67 points too high. Several expected the market to decline last year, with 14.1% predicting that the index would drop.

The winner in 2016 was the person that made the second highest guess of all those surveyed – he who dares, wins. In this case, he won a magnum of Louis Roederer Brut 1990.

predictions_v_reality


 

 

Talking Trade: Bordeaux slows, Burgundy rises

FW50

The Fine Wine 50 Index saw renewed momentum this week with Sterling dropping to a 31-year low against the Dollar. The index increased 0.5%, closing Thursday at 337.73. Trade by value and volume was up, but it was not a strong week for Bordeaux with the region’s trade share at 59.1%.

Regional

Meanwhile, this week saw the Burgundy 2015 En Primeur tastings kick-off in London with early consensus suggesting the vintage will be very good. Jancis Robinson said “the 2015 reds are seriously impressive – though for those paying in pounds they will also be seriously expensive.”

Activity for Burgundy was solid on the market. The region saw a mix of young and old vintages trade with Dominique Laurent Chambertin Vv 2006, Armand Rousseau Chambertin 2014, and high-value DRC Romanee Conti 1996 all finding the bid. Neal Martin has awarded DRC Romanee Conti 1996 a score of 99-100 and said it was “perfectly balanced.”

It was also a strong week for Champagne. Salon, Mesnil 2002 was the top wine traded by value and Verve Clicquot, Yellow Label NV was in the top five wines traded by volume. Other Champagnes that traded this week included Moet & Chandon, Dom Perignon 2006 and Louis Roederer, Cristal 2006.

Value

The value and volume tables were mixed this week with wines from Champagne, Bordeaux, Italy and Burgundy all finding the bid. San Guido Guidalberto 2014 was top by volume. Antonio Galloni said the wine, “doesn’t have the richness or overtness of most years, but it makes up for that with its understated, silky personality.” He scored it 88 points.

Volume

95-point Pichon Baron 2008 hit at an all-time high of £890 per 12×75 this week. This is 2.3% above its previous high of £870 it struck in July 2011 during the China-led boom. Robert Parker said the wine was “gorgeous” and “well-proportioned”, upgrading it from its original barrel score of 92-94 points.

Pichon Baron

Looking for weekend reading? This week, Liv-ex published a blog on Lafite’s premium. You can also view a Spotlight on Beychevelle and read about Vine’s 1,000,000th case.


 

Liv-ex 1000 closes 2016 at another all-time high

lvx1000

The Liv-ex 1000 Index – the broadest measure of the fine wine market – closed December 2016 at an all-time high of 299.80. This is an increase of 1.1% on November’s close of 296.60. The index finished the year 22.3% higher than it was at the end of December 2015. It has risen for thirteen consecutive months.

lvx1000-sub

Among the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, the Burgundy 150 (+26.0%), Bordeaux Legends 50 (+24.9%) and Bordeaux 500 (+23.1%) were the top performers over 2016. All of the indices received a marked boost after June 24 when the UK voted to leave the EU. A weaker Sterling has encouraged buying from Euro and, particularly, Dollar-based merchants.

However, in December the Champagne 50 (-0.9%), the Rest of the World 50 (-0.3%) and the Italy 100 (-0.2%) recorded small declines on the previous month.

table


 

Liv-ex 100 closes the year on a high

5

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index closed December on 297.33, up just 0.4% on the previous month. The index has now risen for an unprecedented thirteen consecutive months and is up 24.8% year-on-year. It is at its highest point since November 2011, when it closed at 297.96.

The two top movers last month were from Burgundy and Bordeaux, with DRC Tache 2012 (WA 97) and Vieux Chateau Certan 2009 (WA 99) increasing by more than 9%. The Left Bank’s Smith Haut Lafitte 2009 (WA 100) was the biggest faller, dropping 7.1%.

Increases slowed in December: the index rose just 0.4%, compared to an increase of 1.6% the previous month. After a whole year of positive movements, will market strength continue into 2017?

risers


 

The Liv-ex 1000 continues to reach record highs

ten-years

The Liv-ex 1000 Index – the broadest measure of the fine wine market – closed November 2016 at a new high of 296.60. This is an increase of 1.02% on October’s close of 293.60. It has now reached record highs for four consecutive months.

The index previously reached a high of 297.69 in July 2011 at the peak of the China-led bull market. It then fell 13.3% before hitting a low of 242.6 in August 2014.

The fine wine market has been rising since the end of last year. It received a marked boost after June 24 when the UK voted to leave the EU. A weaker Sterling has encouraged buying from Euro and Dollar-based merchants.

indices

Amongst the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, Bordeaux has been leading the charge. The Bordeaux Legends 50 (+24.5%) and the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 (+22.7%) have increased the most this year. However, the Champagne 50 (+3.9%) and Burgundy 150 (2.5%) are closing the gap after making strong gains this month. The Italy 100 (-1.0%) and Rhone 100 (-0.6%) continue to lag behind having recorded small declines this month.

index-table


 

Liv-ex 100 gains 1.6% in November

5yrs

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index closed November on 296.19, up 1.6% on the previous month. The index has now risen for an unprecedented twelve consecutive months and is up 23.8% year-to-date. It is now at its highest level in five years.

The two top movers last month were from Champagne and Tuscany, with Taittinger Comtes 2004 (WA 96) and Ornellaia 2009 (WA 97) increasing by more than 9%.

The pace of the market appears to be slowing slightly and there seems to be no set pattern in risers and fallers. In November, Masseto 2010 (WA 98) and Beaucastel 2012 (WA 96) pulled back from their significant gains of previous months. Overall the market strength appears robust, but as we head towards 2017, it remains to be seen whether the long period of sustained gains will continue.

movers