Liv-ex Fine Wine Market Blog

Lafite: The force behind last month's losses

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index lost four per cent in August - its third-most dramatic monthly fall since its inception in 2001. Though the majority of index constituents performed poorly - most notably the First Growths - the real millstone was Lafite Rothschild. 

Recent vintages of Lafite were under acute pressure last month, so much so that all but the 2004 saw significant price slides. The 1998 and 2008 vintages declined by around ten per cent each, whilst the 2003 and 2005 both dropped by eight per cent.

Because the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index is production and scarcity weighted, and the First Growths are produced in sizeable quantities, recent vintages of Lafite have a profound effect on its monthly movements. The chart below compares the performance of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index to that of Lafite since December 2010.

    

Super Second prices soar

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Newton may not have had the fine wine market in mind when he penned the third law, but it seems particularly apt in light of the First Growths and the Super Seconds divergent fortunes. Over the past few months, First Growth prices (and those for their second wines) have been relatively static. But where demand for the First Growths has faltered, and buyers have been disinclined to invest in the top-tier (and most expensive) Left-Bank wines, the so-called Super Seconds have picked up the pace.

As you can see in the chart below, prices for the Super Seconds have risen by an average of 23 per cent in the year to date, compared to eight per cent for the First Growths (as measured by the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index) and six per cent for their second wines.

 
The last ten vintages of Pichon Baron have led the charge, rising in value by an average of just under 40 per cent since the start of the year. Ducru Beaucaillou and Pontet Canet (considered a Super Second or Flying Fifth) have gained 37 per cent each, whilst Montrose and Cos d'Estournel are up 30 per cent and 25 per cent respectively. Despite their ascent, a number of vintages continue to offer strong value. A selection of these are displayed below. Liv-ex trading members can view live markets here.

 
All prices are for 12x75cl cases stored in bond.

The upside of down

With concerns over the global economy weakening investor confidence, the First Growths lost their lustre last week and accounted for just a quarter of total trade on Liv-ex. Reticence and softer demand have, of course, had a knock-on effect on pricing. But whilst the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index (which measures the price performance of the First Growths only) continued its descent today, trade outside the Premiers Crus remains strong.

Over the past few days, merchants have overlooked the First Growths and have opted instead for their second wines, Sauternes and chateaux lower down the ranks of the Crus Classes. Carruades, Forts de Latour and Cos d'Estournel topped buyers' wish lists last week, whilst trade in Yquem moved up a gear (or two) and accounted for five per cent of weekly turnover, placing it ahead of Margaux, Latour and Haut Brion. 

For cautious buyers on the lookout for value, the table below shows a number of wines that don't require deep pockets. Liv-ex trading members can view live markets here.

   
All prices are for cases stored in bond.

Bordeaux 2011: Early, but not great?

 

With the dust now settling on the 2010 campaign, thoughts are gradually turning to the 2011 vintage. According to The Drinks Business, an exceptionally warm, dry spring has accelerated the growing season in Europe, forcing many wine-producing regions (including the Loire, Champagne and the Douro) to prepare for an early harvest. Bordeaux and Burgundy are reportedly considering an end-of-August start, whilst Champange is gearing up for the 20th - the region's earliest harvest in 189 years. (Read the full article here.)

To find out what has ben happening in Bordeaux we spoke to local grower and winemaker Gavin Quinney: "It  is definitely very advanced, the grapes have already finished veraison, so we are probably about ten days ahead of the norm... The growing season started off very hot and very dry; up until mid-July we had drought conditions."  

And though vignerons prayers for rain were answered, the last three weeks have seen rather too much of it, according to Quinney. "We've now started praying that we've seen the last of it. I have seen quite a bit of rot already and it is still very humid... We can already say that we aren't going to have another 'vintage of the century' like 2009 and 2010 - drought followed by heavy rain aren't the best conditions for making wine."

"Having said that, we still have some way to go. The red wine harvest won't start for at least another month. If the weather is kind, it could still be a very good vintage and yields are quite high. But it's a very risky time at the moment in Bordeaux and it could still go the other way."  

Bordeaux 2010 part three: The verdict

Liv-ex is opening the blog once again to Bordeaux grower and winemaker Gavin Quinney (@GavinQuinney). Having previously reported on the wines and weather of Bordeaux 2010, Gavin's latest contribution to the blog covers this year's en primeur tastings.

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There was something different in the air this year, and it wasn’t just the constant tweeting of what the 2010s tasted like.
 
En primeur attendances were higher than ever at the top estates, according to Paul Pontallier of Chateau Margaux. Much in evidence there, and at all the Firsts, were the Chinese translations of the brochures, to add to the long-standing piles of English and French versions. Based on visits to the leading properties the week after the UGCs, these were still being snapped up by Bordeaux’s new best friends.

Perhaps that’s what’s changed. Opinions about many of the great wines no longer matter. For the top chateaux, even huge Parker points or double asterisks won’t be required to sell the iconic brands and for most of us, some of the tastings were academic.

A pity, because the First Growths made belters this year, with all four Médoc Firsts coming close to perfection. What is unusual is the varying levels of alcohol between these four Cabernet Sauvignon-dominated wines: Lafite and Margaux at 13.5%, Mouton at 14% and Latour at 14.5%. Note that Cabernet Sauvignon comes in at lower potential alcohol than Merlot, so it’s no wonder that second and third wines for many estates, with higher percentages of Merlot, pack quite a punch. Chateau Margaux is typical in this respect (13.5%, 14% and 14.5%). Refreshing acidity – much touted by all the chateaux – provides the balance.

 

St-Julien and Pauillac: strong performances

Moving on, St-Julien and Pauillac were incredibly strong across the board. The Cabernet Sauvignons of the top appellations of the Médoc – for me, the best that Bordeaux has to offer in 2010 in any volume – are ‘über-classic’. The Bordelais prefer to use words like elegance, balance and freshness but I’m not sure that these words adequately convey the feeling of power that these wines have. And be prepared to be patient.

The two great spots of Pauillac and St-Julien have their fair share of ‘Parker hopefuls’ – those estates looking for an outstanding good score to maintain or improve their standing amongst their peers. If the prices are not pushed too far, these great 2010s will sell very easily. Pichon Longueville Baron (with arguably their best wine to date), Leoville Las Cases and Leoville Poyferre just edged it for me amongst the Super Seconds, with Pontet Canet once again right up there.

 

And who wouldn’t want a cellar full of St-Juliens like Gruaud Larose, St-Pierre and Langoa Barton, the latter with much less Merlot than usual. A lot of Merlot on both banks - especially on older vines - suffered from coulure and millerandage, or ‘shatter’ and poor fruit set. This reduced the crop, as did the small berry size of all the grapes. But what the Merlot lacked in quantity (and sometimes quality), the Cabernet Sauvignon made up for in quality. We can pray that it doesn’t come at too high a price.

Rest of the Left

St-Estephe has to be viewed on a case-by-case basis. I might have caught Cos on a slightly off day, while Calon Segur showed a lovely wine, despite losing some of the crop to a localised hail storm in May: almost half the number of bottles from 2009 there. Nearby, Montrose, with 20 additional hectares bought from Phelan Segur, was untouched: 50% more bottles of the (brilliant) Grand Vin in 2010. Will it be cheaper than the 100 pointer in waiting, the 2009?

The appellation of Margaux, beyond the very top wines, is a source of values for drinking: 20 chateaux produced 90+ point wines in my book. Issan is right back on form after hail struck in 2008 and 2009, and I’m looking for value from the likes of du Tertre, Ferriere and Labegorce – the latter two not being RP favourites.

Nearby, there are some values from Moulis, Listrac and the southern end of the Haut-Médoc. The Haut-Médoc and the Médoc to the north of St-Estephe produced some very good wines – however, I don’t think it’s a case of fill yer boots with any old Cru Bourgeois. Amongst the winners are rather too many wines with a lack of ripeness and fairly coarse tannins.

South of Bordeaux, the evenly mixed Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot blends of Pessac-Léognan will provide sumptuous drinking. While the top chateaux – Haut-Brion, La Mission, Haut Bailly and Smith Haut Lafitte – made glorious wines, prices haven’t caught up yet for estates on the up like de Fieuzal and Haut-Bergey.

It’s a super vintage for the dry whites of Pessac-Léognan and the Graves, and I’m probably alone in preferring 2010 Sauternes and Barsac to 2009, with the possible exception of Yquem. But that’s another story.

On the Right Bank

It may be small but all eyes are usually on Pomerol. That little bit of rain at key moments in September really helped these precocious vineyards, which once again turned in some wonderful wines. Jacques Thienpont prefers 2010 Le Pin to his 2009 (like his brilliant 2001 to 2000) but I wouldn’t say that this was true across the board here. Mixed flowering in the Merlot, hydric stress and small berries certainly had an impact on the character of the wines, as well as the yields (just 31hl/ha at L’Evangile, compared to 38hl/ha average). Petrus, L’Evangile, L’Eglise Clinet, Vieux Chateau Certan, Clinet, Hosanna – no surprises, just not enough wine.

I tasted scores of St-Emilions and scored many of them very highly. But it was tough going, with many having rigorous tannic frames and a sense that the drought conditions contributed to the dryness of the wines. Still, plenty of super values to be had for those who choose well, with numerous 90+ pointers. Choose carefully: it’s a big place but not one for the faint hearted, with many super-concentrated wines topping 15.5% alcohol. At the top level, Clos Fourtet, Pavie Macquin and Beausejour Duffau impressed again. The Cabernet Franc excelled, not least at Cheval Blanc and Ausone, of course.

Bring on the campaign. And if you want to pick up a relative bargain sooner, take a look at some 2008s, right now.  

The table below shows Gavin's top-scoring 2010s.

 

Is more, more in 2010?

Reports from the trade tastings in Bordeaux this week have been a mix of compliments and cautions. It would seem that the old mantra of “all things in moderation” doesn’t apply to Bordeaux 2010 – a year of high tannins, high acidity and, in many cases, high alcohol. The general feeling seems to be that the vintage is good to great, but unprecedented alcohol levels (15.1 per cent for Mission Haut Brion) have been a note of discord – even, it seems, amongst winemakers. According to a recent Decanter article, local oenologists fear that rising Merlot alcohol levels are threatening regional style. Read the full article here.

Over the next few days, the critics will continue to taste, rate and tweet their way through the rest of the primeurs. In the meantime, James Molesworth of the Wine Spectator has published his list of the wines of the vintage. The table below shows a selection of his favourites. (His First-Growth scores are available here.)

Scores from Winespectator.com

Follow Liv-ex on Twitter to keep abreast of all the latest news and views from Bordeaux.

The buzz from Bordeaux

The Bordeaux en-primeur week is now underway and the "Twittersphere" is buzzing with the fine-wine trade’s initial impressions of the 2010 vintage. A handful of critics – such as Suckling and Molesworth - were early out of the blocks with their tasting reports this year. However, the majority of journalists opted to hold off until the official start of the trade tastings and have been sharing their thoughts on Twitter since early this morning. A few hours and many 2010s later, here is a snapshot of the feedback so far.

@Will_Lyons (Wall Street Journal) 
“@Will_Lyons: Le Pin 2010. Vibrant, fresh, unctuous on the nose but oh so elegant. More energy than 2009. Magical.” #bdx10

@borbordoverview David Bolomey
Freshness for Latour & Forts: beam of acidity + gravelly character open these ripe wines. More depth & darkness for Latour. Precision #bdx10

@Will_Lyons (Wall Street Journal) 
Château Bellevue equisite again this year. Wonderful terroir, one to watch #bdx10

@Decanter
Highs, and lows, at this afternoon's big Sauternes & Barsac tasting. #bdx10

@Timatkin 
Heretical perhaps, but slightly disappointed by Lafite. #bdx2010

@antrose33 Anthony Rose
Mouton Rothschild a big improvement on last year #bdx10; Clerc Milon looking terrific.

Jancis Robinson has added her first impressions of 2010 to the Purple Pages. Whilst she admits that “Bordeaux really does have two very good - let's reserve the word great for a while - vintages in a row” -  stylistically the vintages are miles apart.

"Tasting 2010 and 2009 side by side, you are struck by how sweet the 2009s look next to the 2010s, mainly, I suspect, because of their very different acid levels. Although Stéphane Derenoncourt was warning in Bordeaux 2010 - tannin alert of this primeur vintage's demanding tannin levels, I have so far been far more struck by relatively high levels of acidity in the 2010s.”

Molesworth is among the camp that was not averse to the early publication of scores and late last week he published his reviews for the biggest names from the Right Bank and Sauternes. Having assigned 96-99 points to all but one of the First Growths, the critic awarded both Cheval Blanc and Petrus 95-98 points. Yquem received 93-96 points.

The all-important question, of course, is how will Robert Parker respond to the wines? The critic is usually one of the last to pronounce judgment, but he has tweeted a taste of what’s to come:

"Bordeaux 2010-this is the most widely known thing...already...it is a great, great vintage-not greater than either 2005 or 2009..."

Follow Liv-ex on Twitter to keep abreast of all of the latest news and views from Bordeaux.

James Suckling - “Believe the hype”

“I found the 2010s extremely easy to taste..I even found them more attractive to taste than the 2009s last year at this time.”

Such was the conclusion of former Wine Spectator Editor James Suckling after what can only be described as a two-week tasting marathon in Bordeaux. The critic tasted his way through around 600 barrel samples from the 2010 vintage and then added to the flow of (controversial) early tasting notes. Having previously awarded new vintages barrel-score spreads, Suckling assigned four off-the-bat perfect scores to Lafite, Margaux, Vieux Chateau Certan and Haut Brion Blanc. He says of Lafite, “Believe the hype. Lafite is perfect in 2010…It is amazing. It’s like gazing into the blue sky in wonder after tasting this young wine.”

Other top scorers include Cheval Blanc (99-100), Ducru-Beaucaillou (99-100), Lafleur (99-100), Mouton (99-100) and Latour (98-99). The only remaining First Growth, Haut Brion, received 97-98 points.

Suckling’s notes are a medley of exuberant superlatives and suggest that a number of chateaux produced their “best ever” wines in 2010. Like his former colleague, James Molesworth, the critic claims that the First Growths’ second wines have achieved new levels of quality this year. Carruades de Lafite, which received 89-92 points in 2009, was awarded 95-96 points, whilst Petit Mouton moves up from 90-93 (2009) to 94-95 points.

So far, all signs point to another “great” vintage. With the en primeur week starting in earnest on Monday, will the rest of the critics be as generous as the Jameses? The table below shows Suckling's top 2010s alongside the scores of their 09 counterparts.

Scores from Jamessuckling.com

James Suckling on Bordeaux 2010

With the Bordeaux 2010 campaign fast approaching, the first reports from the tastings are beginning to trickle through the blogosphere. James Suckling appears to have got a headstart this year and published a blog post and video yesterday on his "first few sips of 2010 Bordeaux". His initial take on the vintage? "No one in his or her sound mind could say that 2010 is not an excellent vintage for Bordeaux." Having tasted his way through three dozen offerings from the Medoc, Suckling claims that the wines "have wonderfully pungent noses of ripe Cabernet Sauvignon with generous palates of juicy fruit, and round, polished tannins".

You can view the full report here.

With the rest of the critics set to follow for the UGC tastings later this month, and the question of quality becoming increasingly clamorous, a fuller picture will likely emerge in the weeks to come. Follow Liv-ex on Twitter to keep abreast of all of the latest developments as the 2010 story unfolds.

The World of Fine Wine on Burgundy 09

The World of Fine Wine magazine is offering readers of the Liv-ex blog a preview of its Burgundy 2009 report, which includes tasting notes and scores on more than 300 of the region's top wines. Liv-ex users can also access more than 1,000 WOFW scores by logging on to Liv-ex.com and visiting our individual wine pages, where they are displayed in full alongside the reviews of other leading critics.

The World of Fine Wine is a highly acclaimed quarterly magazine whose tasting panel includes Tim Atkin MW, Clive Coates MW, Hugh Johnson, Oz Clarke and Tom Stevenson. In addition to the Burgundy 09 report and the coverage available on Liv-ex.com, The World of Fine Wine is offering Liv-ex blog readers discounted subcription rates (five issues for the price of four). To benefit from this offer, please follow the link below.

http:www.subscribeonline.co.uk/finewine/LIVEX