Liv-ex Fine Wine Market Blog

Second wine prices flat in 2011

After sprinting to new highs last year, prices for the Premiers Crus' second wines have been relatively static in recent months. In the year to date, the last five physical vintages of the wines have increased in value by an average of just four per cent. The chart below shows the price movement of the second wines (vintages 2004-2008) from June 2009 to June 2011. (Each price index has been rebased at 100 in June 2009.)

 

Though Pavillon Rouge and, of course, Carruades have seen the most notable price appreciation over the last two years (having increased in value by 280 per cent and 282 per cent respectively), the second-wine price hierarchy has, for the most part, remained intact. This can be seen from the second graph, which shows the average price of vintages 2004 to 2008 for each wine as it was in June 2009, and as it is today.

 

With the second wines now trading at First and Second-Growth prices (as highlighted in the 2011 Liv-ex Classification), have they run too far, too fast?

Most traded 2010s

The July Cellar Watch Market Report provides an in-depth perspective of June trading activity, including an overview of the most traded 2010s by both volume and value. Because the First Growths were not released until month end, however, they failed to secure places in either of these categories (in June). As such, we thought it would be interesting to re-run the numbers, this time looking at the most traded wines from the beginning of June to the 7th of July. The results of our analysis are shown below.

After just a week on the market, Lafite outstrips Pontet Canet to be named the most traded wine by value. Carruades and Latour have also seen keen demand this month and make their way into the top five.

 

Though Pontet Canet accounted for heavier volumes of trade in June, extending the timescale of our analysis pushes Rieussec into first place. Once again, Carruades makes the grade, as does Second-Growth Leoville Poyferre.

Market movements: A First glance

Since the First Growths' 2010s were released last week, back vintages have seen strong volumes of trade on the exchange. But with the market still digesting 2010 prices, demand has yet to translate into price growth.

The chart below shows the last Liv-ex trade prices of the Premiers Crus for the 2010, 2009 and 2005 vintages. As you can see, the 2005s are an average of ten per cent cheaper than their corresponding 2010s. Latour 2005 certainly catches the eye (and boasts 99 points from the Wine Spectator - around the same score as the 2010). With the 2000, 2009 and the 2010 all trading at over £11,000 per case, will demand bridge the current price gap?

  
*Haut Brion 2010 has not traded on Liv-ex but is offered at £7,500.

Though the majority of First Growths have seen limited price movement over the past few days, there have been some notable exceptions. Margaux 2003, for example, recently traded on Liv-ex at a new high of £6,347 per case, having previously changed hands at £6,200. Haut Brion 2005 followed a similar trajectory and traded at £6,577 - its highest level since September 2008.

For an in-depth look at 2010 trading activity, read the forthcoming Cellar Watch Market Report. You can also find comprehensive coverage of news and release prices on the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages.

Top 2010s up 15% on 2009

Now that all of the 2010s have been released, we can name the winner of our annual Liv-ex En Primeur Survey Competition. In April, we challenged fine wine traders to predict the first-tranche 2010 release prices of some of Bordeaux's biggest names (shown in the table below). On average, survey respondents predicted that our basket of wines would cost €3,463 ex-Bordeaux, making the wines 4.5 per cent more expensive than their '09 equivalents. In reality, prices amounted to €3,797 - 14.6 per cent higher than in 2009. 

Several predictions came very close. One London-based merchant, however, was out by just two euros and is the winner of this year's prize - a double magnum of La Lagune 2000.

The table below summarises this year's results. (Prices are in euros per bottle, ex-negociant.)

 

For comprehensive coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

Saving the biggest for last

After a long and very expensive campaign, all of the cards are finally on the table. The week ended with some of the most ambitious releases we’ve seen to date: Latour at €780 per bottle ex-negociant (+30 per cent on ’09), Ausone at €1,120 (+17 per cent on ’09) and Cheval Blanc at €850 (+21 per cent on ’09). Fortunately Yquem provided the silver (or gold) lining, having been released at €420 p/b - 22 per cent lower than '09 opening prices.

As we mentioned previously on the blog, the best way to ensure that a wine is a success on the secondary market is to release it at a lower price than other available vintages. With this in mind, the graph below compares the London release price of Cheval Blanc 2010 to the current trading prices of vintages from 2000 onwards. As you can see, the estate's 2010 is clearly one of the campaign’s most difficult sells.

 

For the price of the 2010, buyers could opt instead for three cases of the 2001, two cases of the 2008 or one-and-a-half cases of the 2005. Indeed, the 2010 is the same price as the 1990, which boasts nearly twenty years in bottle and was recently judged perfect by Jancis Robinson. Alternatively, as one tweeter aptly highlighted, you could give Cheval Blanc a miss altogether and go straight for the real thing…

For comprehensive coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

Haut Brion emerges

The wait is on for the last of the Left Banks to join their peers on the other side of the curtain. Today's most talked-about releases include Haut Brion and its second wine, Clarence Haut Brion. Though the latter was released at €108 per bottle ex-negociant, the same price as the second wines of Margaux and Mouton, the grand vin followed a different path and emerged at €660 per bottle - ten per cent above the first-tranche price of Lafite (which traded today at £12,100 per case). Will Latour follow Haut Brion's lead?

Other notable releases included Angelus (€225), Pavie (€225) and Bellevue Mondotte (€216), all of which carried slight premiums. But it wasn't all bad news for buyers. Leoville Las Cases also joined the floor and, like Ducru Beaucaillou and Cos d'Estournel, the Super Second elected to drop prices this year, releasing its 2010 at €192 per bottle (-11 per cent on 2009).

For up-to-the-minute coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

Lafite follows Mouton and Margaux... as does Mission

Lafite Rothschild followed its fellow First Growths, Margaux and Mouton, by releasing its grand vin at €600 per bottle today, with its second wine (Carruades de Lafite) also matching the price of its peers at €108. Although with the first-tranche volumes for both wines extremely thin, the actual price most merchants will pay for the majority of their stock is likely to be a great deal higher.

Both wines traded on the exchange; Lafite was steady at £12,000 per case and Carruades reached close to £3,000.

As we have seen in recent years, many merchants saw their allocations of Lafite tied to large amounts of Rieussec. As such, the Sauternes was trading at a new low of £250 per case, as merchants moved to unbundle stock. Duhart Milon, also part of the Lafite stable, was another of the wines to show its hand, releasing at €66 euros per bottle, around half the current trading price of the 2009. As such it is likely to garner high demand.

A wine that is unlikely to sell through quite as quickly is Mission Haut Brion, which used its 2010 release to firmly state that it should be considered the  sixth First Growth. Despite being ignored in the 1855 classification, the sister estate of Haut Brion released at €600 per case, the same price as Lafite, Mouton and Margaux. This equates to a London release price of around £7,000. As you can see in the chart below, this is significantly higher than the current trading price of comparable vintages. With the 2000 vintage (declared perfect by more than one critic) available at £1,000 less, there seems little reason to purchase the 2010. 

Also released was Forts de Latour, the second wine of Latour, which broke ranks with the other Firsts by releasing at €168. Is this a sign that its grand vin will also carry a premium over its fellow Firsts? 

 

For up-to-the-minute coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

Bordeaux 2010: Mouton and Vieux Chateau Certan released

With month end - and "les grandes vacances" - almost upon us, the flood of 2010 releases intensified today. The latest offerings from Bordeaux included the first and second wines of Mouton Rothschild, which took its cues from fellow First Growth Margaux and released its 2010s at €600 and €108 per bottle (ex-negociant) respectively. According to Decanter, however, only 35 per cent of Mouton's grand vin was released to merchants. The price level that the ensuing tranches will rise to remains to be seen.

Key releases are shown below, along with price changes relative to previous years. Platinum Cellar Watch subscribers can view today's 2010 trades on liv-ex.com.

Palmer: €215 p/b ex-negociant: no change on '09 (€215), +43.3 per cent on '05 (€150)
Mouton Rothschild: €600 p/b ex-negociant: +9.1 per cent on '09 (€550), +66.7 per cent on '05 (€360)
Petit Mouton: €108 p/b ex-negociant: +80.0 per cent on '09 (€60), +140.0 per cent on '05 (€45)
Vieux Chateau Certan: €180 p/b ex-negociant: +15.4 per cent on '09 (€156)
Troplong Mondot: €98.4 p/b ex-negociant: +9.3 per cent on '09 (€90) and +9.3 per cent on '05 (€90)
Conseillante: €150 p/b ex-negociant: +8.7 per cent on '09 (€138) and +92.3 per cent on '05 (€78)
Petit Lion: €36 p/b ex-negociant: +71.4 per cent on '08 (€21) and +122.2 per cent on '07 (€16.2)

For up-to-the-minute coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

2010 campaign back with a bang

With all eyes fixed on Vinexpo last week, there was little 2010 action to be had - bar the surprise release of Evangile on Friday afternoon at €180 per bottle ex-negociant (the same price as the chateau's 2009). This morning the campaign was back in full force, with Super Second Cos d'Estournel surfacing at €198 (-5.7 per cent on '09) and the first of the Premiers Crus, Chateau Margaux, coming to market at a first-tranche price of €600 (+9.1 per cent on '09). Other notable releases included Pavillon Rouge at €108 (+80.0 per cent on '09) and Clerc Milon at €48 (+33.3 per cent on '09).

Despite its weighty price rise, Pavillon Rouge was in hot demand and traded on Liv-ex at a high of £1,450 per 12x75cl case - a clear reflection of the power of the brand. Margaux also drew bidders' attention and found a market at £7,939 per case. Demand for Cos, however, was subdued. Even with its 2010 discount in hand, the wine's opening price was higher than the current trading prices of other available vintages. As we mentioned in a recent blog post, this is an important indication of a wine's probable (or improbable) success on the secondary market.

The chart below shows the ex-negociant prices of today's releases alongside the current trading prices of other recent vintages. (All prices have been converted to euros per bottle.)

 

For up-to-the-minute coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

The real test for Bordeaux 2010

With Vinexpo looming, it's been all quiet on the release front today. This gives us a chance to chew over the past week's plethora of releases. Though it is, of course, significant that opening prices carried large premiums relative to those of previous years, the real measure of a wine's likely (or unlikely) success on the secondary market is how it compares to the current prices of other available vintages. The graph below shows the 2010 ex-negociant prices of some of the biggest releases we've seen so far, alongside the current prices of their respective '09s and '05s. (All prices have been converted to euros per bottle.) Looking at this graph, it's no surprise that three of the most successful releases have been Lynch Bages, Pontet Canet and Leoville Poyferre.

  

For up-to-the-minute coverage of news and release prices, visit the Liv-ex En Primeur Pages. You can also keep up with all of the latest news from Bordeaux by following Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).