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Right Bank 100 posts ninth consecutive gain |  |
Bordeaux 2012: all about price |  |
First Growths show the way |  |
Fine wine data from Liv-ex |
自去年11月以来, Liv-ex 100指数4月份出现首次亏损: 276.26收市, 下跌1.3％。而Liv-ex 50则以318.57收市, 下跌1.3％。
尽管波尔多2012期酒发行价比2011年有所回落，但市场迄今仍不为所动。虽有一小撮2012期酒已在二级市场上买卖，许多人还是认为其过于昂贵，使他们反而作出出售高价杰出年份葡萄酒的反应。
与此同时，次等年份的波尔多葡萄酒也纷纷中标，使他们在4月市场报告中与其他香槟名牌一起成为市场升值排行榜的榜首。有趣的是，紧接着宝马庄(Palmer) 2012震惊1700英镑的伦敦发行价, 其2005年份亦在升值。
Of the component indices of the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 Index, the Sauternes 50 gained the most in April, closing the month up 1.4%. Nevertheless, the appellation has seen the greatest loss year to date and is the only index to have declined over a five year period.
Meanwhile, the Right Bank 100 continues to strengthen. The index has risen every month since July, with prices steadily lifting for vintages of promoted St Emilion wines Angelus and Pavie. Even eye-watering release prices for their 2012s appear to have had a positive effect, with prices for back vintages rising to meet the level. And with critic scores highlighting Pomerol as the stand-out commune for the new vintage, Right Bank prices may well continue to outperform.
For the first time since November the Liv-ex 100 closed the month with a loss. Falling 1.3%, it closed April on 276.26, while the Liv-ex 50 dropped 1.3%, to 318.57.
Although Bordeaux 2012 release prices have come down on the levels of 2011, the market is so far unimpressed. While a handful wines have traded on the secondary market, many consider Bordeaux too expensive, and have reacted by selling high value wines from exceptional vintages.
Meanwhile off-vintage Bordeaux found the bid, and feature in April’s top movers alongside acclaimed champagne brands. Interestingly, Palmer 2005 rose on the back of the 2012 release which came out in London at a staggering £1,700.
The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index has been updated. As the industry’s leading benchmark, the index represents the price movement of the 100 most sought-out wines in the market for which there is strong secondary activity. Subsequently, low liquidity has pushed out a smattering of earlier vintages, including Bordeaux 1989s and 1990s. This has made way for seven new 2010s, in addition to top 2009s from Burgundy, Italy and the Rhone.
The other Liv-ex Indices – including the daily Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index – will see the Bordeaux 2010s added in June. Further details on the components of the indices can be found on our Indices page.
2012 may not have been an easy year for the fine wine market, but the two charts here certainly provide reason to be cheerful. Liv-ex now has 430 merchant members in 35 countries, and their level of engagement continues to grow. The number of active markets and the number of spreads on the exchange hit a new high last month.
There are currently more than 3,500 bids and offers on Liv-ex, reflecting a broadening market. Exchange turnover reached a yearly high in March, while the total exposure (shown below) has been rising since August 2012 and now stands at over £21.5million.
These are positive signs, but while the closing level of the Liv-ex 100 Index in March showed another monthly rise, it remains 23% below its peak of June 2011. All eyes now turn to Bordeaux 2012. If they price it right – and this is by no means guaranteed – the market will continue to broaden and deepen to the benefit of all.
发帖连续第四个月的涨幅，Liv-ex优质葡萄酒100指数3月份上涨了1.29％。月结279.9 , 是自2012年4月以来的最高水平。尽管Liv-ex优质葡萄酒50指数月中曾触及326.69 ，但最终以较温和的322.67月结：只有0.3％的收益。
本月Liv-ex 100迎接了新加入的2010年份葡萄酒（指数成員的变化将在本周博客发布）。或许是意料中事，帕克(Parker) 100满分的2010年黑教皇(Pape Clement) 和拉图 (Latour) 是Liv-ex 100葡萄酒成員中升福最大的前三名。Tache 自其2006年份於上月稳健增长後, 其 2009 年份也证實广受欢迎。
今年由酒庄发行的拉图(Latour) 1995年3月也有升福，但仍远远低于其伦敦发行价的4950英镑，这显示市场仍未信服其额外昂贵的酒庄价格。
Posting its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index rose by 1.29% in March. It closed the month on 279.9 – its highest level since April 2012. Despite having touched 326.69 mid-month, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 closed March on a more modest 322.67: a gain of just 0.3%.
This month has seen the Liv-ex 100 welcome in the 2010s (a blog on the full changes to the index will be posted this week). Not surprisingly perhaps, Parker's 100-point wines Pape Clement and Latour 2010 were among the greatest risers of the Liv-ex 100 components. Tache 2009 also proved popular, following a solid rise for its 2006 last month.
Latour 1995 – this year’s ex-chateau release – was also one of March’s risers, but is still far off its London release price of £4,950, suggesting that the market remains unconvinced by its premium.
A couple of weeks ago Forbes published its annual rich list. The list shows that the number of billionaires has risen from 1,226 in 2012 to 1,426 in 2013 – an increase of 16%.
In the past we have noted the correlation between the number of billionaires and the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index, with demand for fine wines – and other alternative assets – closely linked to wealth creation. Yet in 2012 we noticed this correlation slipping, and in the last year the gap between the two has widened further: the number of billionaires has continued to rise despite the fine wine market’s downturn. This can be seen from the chart below, which tracks Forbes data against the Liv-ex 100. (We have converted the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index to dollars to remove the effects of currency movements.)
With China one of the biggest drivers of the fine wine market, we took a look at the number of Chinese billionaires over time. Once again, the correlation that we have previously seen has weakened. Despite the rising number of Chinese billionaires – up 28% on 2012 – wine prices have fallen. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it would seem that billionaires cannot sustain the wine market alone.
上周，我们回顾了Liv-ex Fine Wine 50指数自2012年11月最低点以来的表現。在四个月內上涨了10.8％。
另一指数自11月下旬以来也持续上升的是上海综合指数。如下图所示，在过去的12个月内，这两个指数之间有很强的相关性。自2012年上半年下跌后，两者从7月份起相对持平，直至年底开始上升。然而，当Liv-ex 50指数持续稳步攀升(上周达到9个月以來的新高)，上海综合指数却只大幅上涨至2月时的顶峰，此后便一直下滑了7％。
之前我们已经注意到中国概念股的表现与优质葡萄酒之间的相关性。然而，尽管最近上海综合指数的下降，但Liv-ex 50指数却持续攀升。 中国能否仍可操纵一级酒庄的命运呢？
