Liv-ex Fine Wine Market Blog

Fine wine and China

Last week we looked at the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50’s performance since its low point in November 2012. In four months it has risen 10.8%.

Another index that has lifted since late November is the Shanghai Composite. As shown below, there has been strong correlation between the two indices over the last 12 months. Having fallen in the first half of 2012, both ran relatively flat from July before rising at the end of the year. Yet while the Liv-ex 50 has been steadily climbing (reaching a nine-month high last week), the Shanghai Composite rose sharply until peaking in February, and has since fallen 7%.

We have previously noted the correlation between the performance of Chinese stocks and fine wine. But with the Liv-ex 50 continuing to edge upwards despite the recent drops for the Shanghai Composite, is China still driving the fortunes of the First Growths? 

Lafite Index rises

The recent Knight Frank Wealth Report included a section on ‘luxury collectable assets’ – such as classic cars, fine art and fine wine. It was revealed that although fine wine was the third most popular luxury investment in 2012, it had the worst yearly performance out of the nine assets featured.

Quoting Andrew della Casa from the Wine Investment Fund, the report cited Lafite as the brand that ‘drove prices up, creating a bubble’ which led to the market ‘over-correct[ing]’. But the Liv-ex indices are now on the rise – as we saw yesterday, the Liv-ex 50 has risen 10.8% since its low point in November 2012, while the Liv-ex 100 has risen 6% year to date.

Although it would seem that the market started to turn in mid-November, the chart above shows that some Lafite vintages had begun rise in price before then. Asian buyers began to turn back to Lafite in late August, but only the “off”-vintages found themselves in demand – and prices increased.

It has taken longer for the more acclaimed vintages to find buyers, but as the chart below shows, both “off” and “on” vintages are now moving upwards in tandem, suggesting that Lafite is attracting broad market interest again.

Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index rises 3.1% in February

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index showed continued strength in February, closing the month on 276.3 – up 3.1%. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 rose by 2.9%, and is now up 9.7% since its low-point of 293.10 in mid-November.

Of the components in the Liv-ex 100, only a fifth of the wines dropped in price in February. Having shown considerable strength late last year Latour 2002 has since pulled back, but on the whole the First Growths had a good month. 

Having drifted at the end of last year, Tache 2006 performed well in February. Mouton 2006 – which hit a five-year price low in January – also found buying interest. Meanwhile Montrose 2009 is climbing back to the peak it touched this time last year, when Parker released his in-bottle scores for the 2009s. 

3个月來的Liv-ex 50：

2012年11月13日Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index指数下跌293.10，是两年半以來的最低位。明天便是自该日起計的3个月後。

經過年底4个月來的长期低迷，该指数從該低点大幅攀升。昨天，Liv-ex 50达到314.96，展示其在过去3个月內上升了7.5％。 “次等” 年份再次一马当先，二月大部份交易為一级酒庄2006和2008年份的 拉菲(LWIN 1011872)，玛歌(LWIN 1012781) 和木桐 (LWIN 1013544) 。

 

Liv-ex 50: three months on

On 13^th November 2012 the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index dropped to 293.10, its lowest level for over two and a half years. Tomorrow marks three months since that date.

Since that low point – which came at the end of four months of flat-lining – the index has climbed significantly. Yesterday the Liv-ex 50 reached 314.96, demonstrating a rise of 7.5% in the last three months. Once again, ‘off’-vintage Firsts are leading the charge, with much of February’s First Growth trade in 2006 and 2008 vintages of Lafite Rothschild (LWIN 1011872), Margaux (LWIN 1012781) and Mouton Rothschild (LWIN 1013544). 

February 2013 Market Report released

The February Market Report includes:  

• Trading Activity - A positive start for 2013

• Fine Wine Indices - Liv-ex 100 posts highest rise in two years 

• Major Movers  - Off-vintage Firsts on the rise

• Chart of the month - The China effect 

• Final Thought - Champagne: no sign of a bubble

Please log in to the Cellar Watch website and find the full report in Market Reports under the Cellar Tools tab. Those who have not yet subscribed can view the first page of the report here.

Liv-ex 100 两年来的最高单月升幅

Liv-ex Fine Wine 100指数1月上涨了2.8％：是自2011年2月以来的最高单月升幅。月结为268.13，比12月上升7.35点。 Liv-ex Investables指数上升2.4％， Bordeaux 500指数则微升2.2％。而Liv-ex 50指数也上升了3.5％, 是连续第二个月一级酒庄的最​​大价格变动。

Liv-ex 100的葡萄酒中，2008年奥比昂(Haut Brion ) 的增长最大。此外(如下表所示), 高分的1998年木桐自10月以来价格也一直在上扬; 而其同样广受好评的2000年份，自8月以来也慢慢上涨，其现价只比2011年5月时高峰期价格略低800英镑。

在我们的升跌表中有两个100分的2009年份葡萄酒– 但一升一跌。波菲酒庄（Chateau Leoville-Poyferre）是1月份升值最多的其中一员，而较昂贵的爱士图尔(Cos d'Estournel ) - 其显著的2009年份及其他年份– 则价格回落。曾在11月有最大价格上涨的2002年份水晶香槟(Cristal)，1月也下跌。同期下跌的还有2004年份的奥纳亚(Ornellaia)，而1月也是意大利酒在Liv-ex的贸易份额18个月以来最低的。

Update to the Liv-ex Champagne 25 Index

The end of January brought an update to the Liv-ex Champagne 25 Index (shown above against the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50) which tracks the top Champagne vintages in the market. Low liquidity pushed out several older vintages, including Cristal 1995 (LWIN 10825421995) and Krug 1988 (LWIN 10823791988). With a fifth of wines leaving the index, this made way for releases from last year.  This included Taittinger Comtes 2002 (LWIN 10830572002), which accounted for a quarter of all Champagne trade by value in 2012, and the recently released Taittinger Comtes 2004 (LWIN 10830572004).

The components currently in the Liv-ex Champagne 25 index are shown below. The Final Thought in the February Cellar Watch Market Report (released later this week) will be on Champagne.  

Liv-ex 100 sees highest monthly rise for two years

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 rose 2.8% in January: its highest month-on-month move since February 2011. It ended the month at 268.13, up 7.35 points on December. The Liv-ex Investables Index moved up 2.4%, while the Bordeaux 500 edged up 2.2% . For the second month in a row the First Growths saw the greatest price movement, with the Liv-ex 50 rising 3.5%.  

Of the components of the Liv-ex 100, Haut Brion 2008 increased the most. It was joined on the table (shown below) by high-scoring Mouton 1998, which has been on the move since October, and its equally acclaimed 2000. Having edged up since August, the 2000 is now just £800 shy of its peak price from May 2011.

There are two 100-points 2009s in our table of risers and fallers – but not in the same section. While Leoville Poyferre was one of January’s top risers, the more expensive Cos d’Estournel – its 2009 at a significant premium to its other vintages – dropped back. Cristal 2002, which had seen the greatest price rise in November, also fell in January. It was joined on the downward slope by Ornellaia 2004, during a month where Italy took its lowest share of trade on Liv-ex in eighteen months.

The Liv-ex 50 by currency

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index hit its low point for 2012 on 13^th November, and since then has risen by 6.2%. Yet as the chart above shows, the severity of this growth is dependent on which currency you are trading in. With the Yen weakening, the Japanese have seen the greatest gain – of 20% – in fine wine prices over the last two and a half months. For the Dollar and Sterling – which have weakened against the Euro – this increase is smaller, while in Euros, prices have barely risen at all. Such disparity leaves the question: has the price of wine really gone up, or has, in fact, the value of money merely gone down?