Lafite the most viewed wine on Liv-ex; Pontet Canet climbing

Last August we examined the 50 most viewed wines on Liv-ex, based on visits to wine pages for January-July 2015. The table below shows the most viewed wines over the same period in 2016. It also shows where there have been changes in the wine trade’s interests.

The Bordeaux First Growths continue to attract the most attention. Lafite Rothschild is now in the top spot, taking it back from Mouton Rothschild which topped the table last year. Margaux and Latour have also switched places. Once again, Clarence/Bahans Haut Brion was the only second wine not to appear in the table – but it came close in 51st place, up from 69th last year.

The three wines that climbed the most are Pontet Canet, Beychevelle and Petit Mouton. Pontet Canet jumped into sixth place, making it the most viewed wine outside of the First Growths. Merchants were most interested in its 100-point 2010 vintage, which was the most viewed individual wine overall. Petit Mouton and Beychevelle have been in the spotlight recently: both have seen prices increasing since the beginning of the year, driven largely by demand from Asia.

DRC has a mixed presence within the table. While DRC, Romanee Conti is the wine that has dropped the most – down 25 places – DRC, La Tache is among the three new entrants. This comes as DRC prices have been showing signs of strengthening.

The other two new entrants to the table are Krug and Gruaud Larose. Interest in Krug has been focused around the 2002 vintage which was released at the beginning of February.

This year, the three wines that dropped out of the top 50 came from regions outside of Bordeaux: Vega Sicilia, Dom Perignon and Ornellaia.


 

July highs for Talbot

Talbot performance

Yesterday’s blog focused on two high-scoring Right Bank vintages from Angelus that traded at all-time highs in July. Another wine – this time from the Left Bank – also stood out last month with five vintages from Talbot trading at all-time highs. These were the 2002, 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2010.

Despite having a low average score (89.5 points from the Wine Advocate over the last ten vintages), Talbot has performed well on the secondary market. As the chart above shows, the index tracking its last ten physical vintages has outperformed its peer group, the Left Bank 200 index, by 13.5%.

Talbot table

In July, Talbot 2002 traded above the higher-scored 2004, 2009 and 2010 vintages. The 2002 is the lowest-scoring Talbot of the last 24 years and was described by Robert Parker as “thin, meek, austere, and shallow” and a “major disappointment”.  The 2010 is the highest-scoring Talbot since the 1986 vintage and was described by Parker as “one of the best Talbots over recent years”. The 2002 is now being offered at a Market Price of £540, above the 2010 Market Price of £511.

Talbot 10


 

Angelus 2009 and 2010 hit all-time highs

A 2009

In July, the Right Bank 100 Index hit an all-time high of 236.19. In the same period, Angelus 2009 and Angelus 2010 – which are components of the index – also traded at new highs of £2,900 and £2,802 per 12×75 respectively. The wines have been identified as “candidates that flirt with perfection” and were awarded 99+ points by Robert Parker.

Both vintages have increased significantly in recent months. The 2010 is now up 12% from its last trade price of £2,500 in April, while the 2009 has increased 8.5% from a trade price of £2,675 in June. The 2010 is now 40% above its lowest trade price of £1,989 in June 2014.

Historically the 2010 has lagged behind the 2009. It was originally rated lower with a barrel score of 94-96+ before being upgraded to 98 points by Robert Parker. The 2009 was rated 96-100 and scored 99 points in bottle. Both were upgraded to 99+ in August 2015.

In July, Angelus 2001 (WA 97) and Angelus 2004 (WA 95) also hit all-time highs. 100-point Angelus 2005, however, remained below its peak trade price of £3,700 and last traded on the Exchange at £3,450 in June.

A 2010


Talking Trade: 29th July – 4th August

FW50

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index continued to firm this week. It closed at 309.78 on Thursday, up 0.6% on the previous week. It is now at its highest level since late September 2013.

This week Bordeaux activity picked up with the region taking a high percentage of trade, well above July’s average share. A variety of Bordeaux vintages caught the attention of buyers, with a focus on both high-value and low-value wines from the region.

Region

Bordeaux trade hit its highest level since early June when it registered 87.8% by value. First Growth trade was also up at 32.6% from 26.8% last week. Latour was the most active, taking 32% of the First Growth’s share. Latour 1996 (WA 99) was the top traded wine by value this week.

Champagne was up on the previous week at 4.8%. There was good activity for Cristal 2007 after the release of Cristal 2009. The 2007 (AG 97+) is one the cheapest recent vintages available and was described by Anthony Galloni as one of the “very finest new releases of the year” when he reviewed it in 2015.

This week Liv-ex saw its first ever trade in English wine when one case of Nyetimber, Classic Cuvee, 2010 traded on the Exchange.

Value

Like last week, high value and high scoring Bordeaux featured heavily among the top wines traded by value. Mission Haut Brion 2010 (WA 98+) was described by Robert Parker as “a strong candidate for a perfect score in about 15 years”. The wine was introduced to the Liv-ex 100 index last month. Haut Brion 2012 (WA 98) has been targeted by buyers recently as a wine that offers relative value against the lower-scoring Margaux 2012 (WA 95) that last traded at £3,105.

Volume

The top traded wines by volume were mostly lower-scoring Bordeaux. Duhart Milon 2012 (WA 89) was top of the table and was also in the top wines traded by value this week. It also featured in the top five wines traded by value earlier in July alongside its 2011 sibling.

Cellar Watch August 2016 Market Report released

Fine wine market report - January 2016The Cellar Watch August Market Report has been released.

Containing all the latest Liv-ex research and analysis, the full issue includes:

  • Strong momentum
  • Record month for “Others”
  • Bordeaux quality in focus
  • Keep on rising
  • Final thought: The Rhone, A North-South divide

To access the full report, please log in or subscribe to Cellar Watch.

You can download page one – with charts and data – here, or read the text below:

Strong momentum

It has been a strong month for the fine wine market. The Exchange remained active with exposure — the total value of firm bids and offers — reaching a new record level. The number of active markets also struck a new record. A number of wines have also hit record highs.

Record month for “others”

It was a record month for the “Others” category at 8.2% of trade by value. Bordeaux was lower at 69.5% while Burgundy took 8.4%. Champagne took 6.6% and Italy took 4.4%. The Rhone equalled its 2016 record at 2.9%.

Bordeaux quality in focus

The “great” 2005, 2009 and 2010 Bordeaux were the most traded vintages in July followed by the 2008 and 2012s. Of the 2012s, Margaux  hit a fresh high of £3,240 and represented 8.6% of all 2012 trade, with Mouton Rothschild 2012 and Haut Brion 2012 close behind at 8.3% and 7.6% respectively.

Keep on rising

All of the major Liv-ex indices continued to firm in July. The Liv-ex 50 gained the most — up 5.4% — while the Liv-ex 100 increased 3.6% and the Liv-ex 1000 moved up 3.4%. The Liv-ex 100 has now increased for eight consecutive months. The Bordeaux 500 was up 3.8%.

For current and historic issues of the full report, please subscribe at www.cellar-watch.com

English wine trades on Liv-ex for the first time

Nyetimber Classic Cuvee, 2010

On Monday, Liv-ex saw its first ever trade in English wine when one 6x75cl case of Nyetimber, Classic Cuvee, 2010 traded on the Exchange for £120.

Bordeaux, Burgundy, Italy, Champagne and the Rhone are the major regional groups of fine wines that regularly see secondary market activity. Bordeaux dominates: so far in 2016, trade for the region has accounted for 74.6% of total activity by value. Bordeaux First Growths Lafite Rothschild, Mouton Rothschild and Haut Brion have been the most traded labels so far this year.

Although these groups represent the majority of activity, wines from around the world regularly trade on the Exchange: this year, the fine wine market has seen activity from New Zealand, Lebanon and Chile, amongst others. As shown in the chart below, this group – the ‘rest of the world’ – has seen increased market share in recent years as the fine wine market broadens. Increased participation of English wines would no doubt be welcomed by those in the UK trade.

Fine wine market share

Rest of the world: regional groups that have traded in 2016 (in descending order of value)

USA, Australia, Spain, Port, South of France, Alsace, Germany, Chile, Loire, Cognac, Argentina, Lebanon, South Africa, England, New Zealand.


Liv-ex 1000 Index gains 3.4% in July

 

Capture

In July, the Liv-ex 1000 Index increased 3.4% – the same increase as the previous month – to close on 273.3. The index is now at its highest level since July 2011 when the index peaked at 279.7 during the China-led boom.

The market has recently received a boost from weaker Sterling in the wake of the Brexit vote with Euro and Dollar-based buyers taking advantage of the favourable currency situation.

The Bordeaux 500 also moved higher in July, up 3.8% to 268.67. This is its biggest monthly move since July 2007 when the index increased 5.6%.

Livex sub chart

All of the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices moved higher in July. The largest gain was made by the Bordeaux Legends 50 (+4.0%), also the largest mover year-to-date. The Rest of the World 50 Index made the smallest gain month-on-month, up 1.7%. It is the worst performer year-to-date. Over a five-year period, however, the Rest of the World 50 is the best performing sub-index of the Liv-ex 1000, up 29.8%.

Livex sub table


 

Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 gains 3.6% in July

Liv-ex 100

The industry benchmark – the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index – increased for the eighth consecutive month in July. It gained 3.6% to close on 269.07. This is the largest positive monthly movement that it has seen since November 2010. It is now at its highest level since August 2013.

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index also continued its charge, rising 5.4% to close on 307.8.

Buyers appear to have favoured top-scoring Bordeaux in July: high risers Leoville Poyferre 2009, Latour 2003 and Cos d’Estournel 2009 have all received 100-points from Robert Parker. Margaux 2010 – up 10.5% – has been scored 99 points by the critic.

Each of the five wines within the index that fell the most are from outside Bordeaux. Three of these are from Burgundy, with Armand Rousseau, Chambertin, 2010 (-9.8%) dropping the most.

Livex100_movers

Updated 15/08/2016: Originally stated “largest monthly movement since November 2011”. November 2010 is correct.


Five years from market peak: a divided picture

Five years ago, the industry benchmark – the Liv-ex 100 index – reached its highest ever level when it closed on 364.7 at the end of June 2011. The Bordeaux 500, which tracks the price performances of 50 leading Bordeaux wines, reached its highest point one month later. This marked the peak of the boom for fine wine that began in mid-2005 and was spurred on when the acclaimed Bordeaux 2009 vintage was released in Spring 2010. But how have prices performed since?

The major indices drifted from peak until the end of June 2014, the market’s recent low. The Liv-ex 100 was down 36%; the Bordeaux 500 dropped 23%. They have both shown signs of recovery since: each has bounced 10%.

However, price performance has not been uniform. The chart below shows disparity between the impact of the downturn on different sub-indices of the Bordeaux 500. While the Left Bank reds – the First Growths in particular – were hit the hardest, top Right Bank wines saw a shorter and less severe period of decline, or even continued to rise. The Sauternes 50 shows no correlation with other sub-indices: it has been gently sliding for the past five years.

Bordeaux 500

The price movements of wines within the index tell a similarly divided story. Of the 50 wines represented by the Bordeaux 500, 32 have dipped since June 2011. The remaining 18 – shown in the table below – have bucked the broader trend by increasing. The biggest climber, Angelus, is up 52.1%; Duhart Milon, which has fallen the furthest, is down 45.5%.

The Right Bank is well represented among those that are up: eight of the 15 Right Bank wines in the index appear in the table below. From the Left Bank, Calon Segur is the best-performer by a significant margin, up 38.8%. Next is Petit Mouton, the only second wine to appear despite a recent boost for the group.

Bordeaux top performers

Among the wines that have declined are those that gained the most during bull market. Five of the top ten fallers are First Growths and their second wines – and with Duhart Milon dropping the most, the Lafite stable is very present.

Bordeaux 500 fallers

So where next? The Right Bank 100 index is currently at its highest ever level. Other indices – notably the Fine Wine 50 – have still been recovering from the recent low. Whether a more uniform movement will be observed going forward will depend on where buyers find value next. What is clear is that the various groups begin the next five years from very different starting points – and this is just Bordeaux.


Talking Trade: 22nd – 28th July

FW50

Last week attention turned towards more accessibly priced wines, but this week the focus was back on high value with a number of wines trading at fresh all-time highs. The total value of trade was higher, while total volume was lower than the previous week.

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index has put in one of its strongest performances. It has continued to firm, but momentum eased a little on the previous week as the slower summer period started to take hold. The index closed at 308.07 on Thursday, up 0.6% on the previous week.

Regional

Bordeaux trade was up marginally, but the largest increase came from the ‘Others’ category that was boosted by the USA. Opus One 2009 was in the top ten wines traded by value this week. Dominus 2008 (WA 99) and Continuum and Proprietary Red 2012 (WA 96) also found the bid.

First Growth trade was up on last week’s 15.5% share of total activity at 26.8% – its highest share since June. Mouton Rothschild was the most active, representing 49% of First Growth share and 13.2% of total trade this week. Mouton Rothschild 2008 (WA 94) was the top wine traded by value.

Value

High value and high scoring Bordeaux featured heavily among the top wines traded by value this week. Ausone 2003 (WA 100) traded at its highest level since January 2015 and Latour 2003 (WA 100) traded at its highest level since February 2014. Pape Clement 2005 (WA 99) traded at a new all-time high.

Volume

Outside of Bordeaux, Pierre Usseglio, Chateauneuf Du Pape 2010 (WA 93) was the top wine traded by volume. Robert Parker described it as “a full-bodied, rich wine with super purity.” Antinori, Guado Al Tasso 2011 (AG 96) also featured in the top five by volume this week and traded at an all-time high.