Bordeaux 2007: performance of the First Growths

In his Bordeaux 2007 En Primeur report, Robert Parker predicted that “most consumers will probably love the style of the vintage’s top wines because they are so flattering, seductive, and fruit-forward”, adding that they “should age surprisingly well for 10-15 years”.

As we enter the tenth year since the vintage, there is some interest in how the wines have progressed. In a series of short blog posts, Liv-ex will examine how the prices of the wines have moved since release.

These posts will examine price variations – the highest and lowest Market Prices against the current and release prices – for wines within the Bordeaux 500 Index, starting with the First Growths.

At a glance

On average, the wines of Bordeaux 2007 are up 69% since release. Their performance has outpaced the broader market: since Spring 2008, the Bordeaux 500 index has increased by 41.9%.

The wines are 15.6% off their peak levels on average. Seven of the 50 examined are currently at their highest ever Market Price. These are Angelus, Cos d’Estournel, Grand Puy Lacoste, Le Pin, Palmer, Pavie and Vieux Chateau Certan.

Just one wine, Climens, is at a record low.

First Growths

Bordeaux 2007

The chart above shows how prices for the 2007 First Growths have varied since release. Lafite’s Market Price has varied the most over time. In April 2009 it hit a low of £1,900 per 12×75, but by July 2011 it had climbed to £8,200. Its current Market Price of £6,100 – still the highest of these wines – represents a 25.6% drop from peak.

Both Mouton Rothschild and Margaux are within 6% of their record Market Prices.

Bordeaux 2007 First Growths

For analysis on the remaining wines of the Bordeaux 500 index, check back over the next week.


Cellar Watch February 2017 Market Report released

Fine wine market report - January 2016The Cellar Watch February Market Report has been released.

Containing all the latest Liv-ex research and analysis, the full issue includes:

  • Market on the move
  • Neal Martin on Bordeaux 1986
  • Mixed monthly movers
  • Fine wine risk vs. return
  • Final thought: Bordeaux 2014

To access the full report, please log in or subscribe to Cellar Watch.

You can download page one – with charts and data – here, or read the text below:

Market on the move

Trade by both value and volume was up this month. A number of wines traded at all-time highs, including 100-point Pavie 2009 and 95-point Pichon Baron 2008. As the trade continue to show high levels of engagement, the number of active markets—wines with both a bid and offer on the Exchange— increased to 6,232 from 5,597. Most of the Liv-ex indices were firmer this month.

Bordeaux slows

Bordeaux got off to a slow start this year with the region accounting for just 61.6% of trade by value compared to its 74.7% average in 2016. Instead, the spotlight this month was on Burgundy which took a solid 18.4%, well above its 7.9% average in 2016. Italy accounted for 6.0%, the Rhone 2.5% and the USA 2.6% with Screaming Eagle and Dominus taking the lion’s share.

Lafite leads

Bordeaux 2014 saw good activity in January: it was the second most traded Bordeaux year after the great 2009 and ahead of 2010. Overall, Lafite Rothschild (10.8%) was the most traded wine by value. Mouton Rothschild (5.4%) and Burgundy’s Ponsot Clos Roche Vv (4.2%) also saw high levels of activity last month.

Indices push higher

The Liv-ex 1000 gained 0.5% in January with all of the sub-indices rising apart from the Bordeaux Legends 50 (-0.9%). The strongest performers among the sub-indices were the Italy 100 and Champagne 50 which saw renewed strength after posting small declines the previous month.

For current and historic issues of the full report, please subscribe at www.cellar-watch.com


Lafite: highs and lows

Lafite 2012

Two Lafite Rothschild vintages have recently traded at all-time highs. Last week the 2012 traded a record £4,390 per 12×75. This is an increase of 40.3% on its trade price of £3,128 one year ago.

The 2014 vintage also traded at an all-time high this month, at £4,134.

However, several other Lafite vintages remain far off their highest levels, achieved at the peak of the Bordeaux market in 2011.

As shown in the chart below, the ‘05, ‘08, ‘09 and ‘10 vintages all traded above £12,200 during the China-led boom in 2011 but are now offered well below this.

The 2008 vintage has seen the largest variation in price. During En Primeur, it traded at a low £1,800 per 12×75. In 2010, it jumped to £10,160 the day after it was announced that the bottle would carry the Chinese symbol for the number eight.

Lafite highs


Talking Trade: A big week for Burgundy

FW50

The Fine Wine 50 gained 0.6% over the last week, closing Thursday at 339.10. However, Bordeaux activity slowed with the region taking just 42.6% of trade by value, well below January’s average share. All of the key Liv-ex indices were firmer in January. The Liv-ex 100 – the industry leading benchmark – closed the month 1.25% higher, while the Liv-ex 1000 – the broadest measure of the market – was up 0.5%.

regional

It was a solid week for Burgundy. Maison Leroy Bourgogne Rouge 2015 and Maison Leroy Bourgogne Blanc 2015 were the top wines traded by value and volume. 2014 was the most traded Burgundy vintage, followed by 2015 and 2010. Champagne, Italy and the Rhone also saw an increase in trade.

value

First Growth trade was lower, but there was continued activity for Lafite Rothschild 2014. The wine was in the top wines traded by value and traded at a fresh high of £4,134 per 12×75. A number of other Bordeaux 2014s traded this week. They included Margaux, Pichon Baron, Calon Segur and Clerc Milon.

volume

94-point Calon Segur 2009 traded at an all-time high of £800 this week. It is up 30% over the last year and has been described by Neal Martin as an “excellent Saint Estephe.”

Calon Segur 2009

Looking for weekend reading? This week, Liv-ex published blogs on the monthly close of the Liv-ex 1000 and Liv-ex 100 indices.. You can also read a spotlight on Italian Super Tuscan producer Tignanello.


 

Liv-ex 1000 continues to climb

Liv-ex 1000

The Liv-ex 1000 Index – the broadest measure of the fine wine market – closed January 2017 at another all-time high of 301.24. This is an increase of 0.5% on December’s close of 299.80. The index has now reached record highs for six consecutive months and is up 21.5% year-on-year.

Sub-indices

Among the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, the Burgundy 150 (+25.4%) and the Champagne 50 (+22.2%) have increased the most over one year. The Italy 100 (+2.8%) made the strongest gains this month as buyers broadened their focus.

However, in January the Bordeaux Legends 50 (-0.9%) recorded small declines on the previous month.

monthly close


Liv-ex 100 gains 1.25% in January

five years

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index closed January at 301.88, up 1.25% on the previous month. The index has now risen for an unprecedented fourteen consecutive months and is up 25.3% year-on-year. It is now at its highest point since October 2011, when it closed at 308.03.

The biggest movers last month came from a number of regions. The top two were Guigal, Cote Rotie 2012 (average price, production combined of the La Las) and 100-point (WA) Smith Haut Lafitte 2009. They increased by 11.0% and 7.3% respectively. Guigal, Landonne 2012 was upgraded to 100-points at the end of December 2016 by Wine Advocate.

Pavie 2009 (WA 100) also gained 5.4%. Earlier in the month it traded at an all-time high of £3,100 per 12×75.

Overall, momentum increased in January: the index rose 1.25%, compared to just 0.4% in December. However, not all wines moved in a positive direction: Leoville Las Cases 2009 (WA 98+) and Haut Bailly 2009 (WA 100) pulled back slightly after making significant gains in previous months.

Movers


Opportunities at Liv-ex

Graduate Administrator – fine wine

Liv-ex is recruiting a Graduate Administrator. This is an exciting vacancy in Vine, our Logistics arm. It would suit a hard-working team player with the enthusiasm and dynamism to thrive in an entrepreneurial company.

This is a role for an ambitious graduate at the beginning of their career. You will be assisting our team of Client Executives with daily admin tasks: arranging wine collections, uploading stock lists, and providing clients with PODs (Proof of Deliveries), delivery schedules and answers to general stock queries.

For a talented individual, the role will develop into a Client Executive position, a trusted first point of contact for our clients worldwide. Client Executives deal with daily questions, troubleshoot, and work closely with Sales Account Managers to promote Liv-ex services to our varied client base.

Research Analyst

This is a unique opportunity for an intellectually curious, commercially minded and articulate individual with ambitions to be a pre-eminent expert on the fine wine market.

A fascination with and a good understanding of the fine wine market will be an advantage, but not a prerequisite. The role will require you to contribute, develop and build upon Liv-ex’s existing insights as well as more comprehensive reports on the fine wine market, such as the Liv-ex Power 100 and the Liv-ex 1855 Re-Classification.

 

To find out more about these roles and how to apply, visit the Liv-ex Careers page.


Spotlight on… Tignanello

marchesi-antinori-tignanello-toscana-igt-tuscany-italy-10265370

Owner: Marchesi Antinori

Classification: Toscana IGT

Vineyard area: 140 acres (57 hectares)

Colour: Red

Standard blend: 80% Sangiovese, 15% Cabernet Sauvignon, 5% Cabernet Franc.

Average production: 20,000 – 30,000 cases

History

In 1850 the Antinori family acquired several small farms with vineyards in the Chianti Classico area. These included Paterno, Santa Maria, Poggio Niccolini and 47 hectares at Tignanello, which would go on to become the current Tignanello estate.

During the Second World War in 1943, the family residence at Villa Antinori was damaged and the family moved to the Tignanello estate. However, it wasn’t until 1970 that the first vintage of Tignanello was created, with 20% Canaiolo, 5% Trebbiano and 5% Malvasia alongside Sangiovese. The following year, the blend of Tignanello was not compliant with the rules of Chianti Classico. By the 1975 vintage white grapes were eliminated from its blend altogether.

Because of this, Tignanello was unable to be classified as Chianti Classico DOC and was branded as a table wine for many decades along with a group of other wines including Ornellaia, Sassicaia and Solaia. Together these wines broke away from DOC restrictions and became recognised as a group of high quality non-DOC wines: Super Tuscans.

Chianti Classico DOC has now altered the regulations, allowing Tignanello to label its wine Chianti Classico. However, the winery chose to not use Chianti Classico on the label, and continues to produce under Toscana IGT.

Market Performance

The Tignanello index – which tracks the price movements of the last ten physical vintages – is up 27.1% year-on-year. It has outperformed the Italy 100 index which is up 13.8% over the same period. Tignanello is also the best performing Super Tuscan index year-on-year, while commanding lower Market Prices than others. Second to Tignanello is its sister wine, Solaia, which is up 17.9%.

The best-performing vintages have been the 2006 and 2008 over the past twelve months, up 37.8% and 33.6% respectively. The 2007 followed close behind with a 33.1% increase.

Tignanello_Market_performance

The chart below compares Tignanello Market Prices against their scores from Antonio Galloni. The chart shows that Tignanello follows the traditional price pattern of fine wine: prices rise as the wine gets older and quantities in the market deplete.

Buyers willing to wait might therefore consider the more recent vintages. They are amongst the most highly scored, but their prices are still waiting to catch up with those of their older siblings. For example, the 2007 (AG 95) and 2013 (AG 95) have equal scores but the 2013 is available at a 32.3% discount to the 2007.

Tignanello_Market_price_vs_score

Age appears to have more of a direct impact on price than critic scores. When Tignanello Market Prices are plotted against age, the trend line shows a positive exponential correlation. The wines that drift furthest below the trend line are 2009 and 2005. These might be considered undervalued compared to Tignanello vintages around the same age.

Tignanello_Market_price_vs_age

 


Talking Trade: Bordeaux bounces back, 2014 in focus

FW50

Bordeaux activity picked up this week with the region taking 68.7% of trade by value. Overall, trade by value was higher, but trade by volume edged lower as buyers focused on high value brands. The Fine Wine 50 dipped (-0.1%), closing Thursday at 336.92.

Regional

Bordeaux’s bounce back included a number of 2014s with Lafite 2014 (WA 94-96) and Cheval Blanc 2014 (WA 95-97) among the top wines traded by value. Cheval Blanc is one of the top-scoring wines of the vintage.

High-scoring Montrose 2014 (WA 95-97) also found the bid. It was released above expectations at £850 per 12×75 – making it the fourth most expensive vintage on the market at the time. The wine is now up 8% and last traded at £914.

Value

It was also a busy week for Burgundy with DRC Tache 2006 and DRC Echezeaux 2012 trading. Italian, Altesino Brunello Montalcino 2010 was the top wine traded by volume for the second consecutive week.

Volume

Lynch Bages 2009 traded at just £58 under its all-time high of £1,338 it hit in 2012. It was awarded 98 points by Robert Parker and is up 37.6% over the last year.

Lynch

Looking for weekend reading? This week, Liv-ex published two blogs on the broadening of the fine wine market – A more diverse market: the regional view and The long tail: fine wine market broadens. You can also read about Perfect Pavie 2009 hits new high.


 

A more diverse market: the regional view

The fine wine market has been broadening. 4,396 different wines traded in 2016. This represented an increase of 27% on 2015, and 167% on 2010 when the market was dominated by a narrow group of top Bordeaux wines.

Although wines from new areas such as England and China have begun to see activity on the market, these have not impacted the numbers greatly.

Instead, the increases are largely due to buyers diversifying within the traditional fine wine producing regions. Burgundy stands out: an additional 450 different wines traded last year compared to 2015, a rise of 57%.

The range of Bordeaux trading has also expanded, though the increases look smaller in percentage terms.

Champagne, Italy, and the Rhone have increased but from much lower bases.

LWINstradedtable

Find out more: The long tail: fine wine market broadens